Wednesday, October 1, 2008

My Take on the AL and NL Rookie of the Year

With baseball's regular season ending and its second season beginning, it's time to look at some awards. First up, the Rookie of the Year Award.

I will rank the players like I actually had a ballot in the voting, which I clearly don't. The ROY ballot lets you vote for first, second, and third choices, with the points breakdown being 5-3-1 towards the final tally. Of course, I'm the only one doing it here, so the final tally is my order. So without further adieu...

American League Rookie of the Year

Just Missed the Cut: Denard Span OF Twins, Mike Aviles SS Royals, Joba Chamberlain P Yankees
All three of these players would get more consideration if they had more playing time, assuming of course their numbers didn't drop off with the increase in at bats, or in Chamberlain's case, innings. But with the time each missed, I can't justify putting them on the ballot ahead of any of my choices.

Third: Alexei Ramirez 2B White Sox
Another case where had he gotten more plate appearances, I would have ranked him higher. The Cuban Missile burst onto the scene after leaving Cuba about a year ago. He displayed good power for a playoff team, and played multiple positions. He has drawn comparisons to Alfonso Soriano, which, looking at his numbers, seem fair, both in the fact that he has good power and hits for a good average, but rarely walks. He led AL rookies in batting average (.290), but only had an on-base percentage of .317. He also hit four grand slams this year, which is a rookie record.

Second: Jacoby Ellsbury OF Red Sox
Among all the options here, Ellsbury got the most consistent playing time, as the only AL rookie to get 550 plate appearances (he had 609, 86 more than Daric Barton, who had the second most, and 100 more than Ramirez). He probably didn't quite live up to some of the monstrous expectations following his excellent play in last year's World Series, but despite that, he still led all American League rookies in runs (98), hits (155), and triples (7), and led the entire American League in stolen bases (50).

First: Evan Longoria 3B Rays
Unquestionably the best rookie in the American League this year, with the only questions coming due to time missed due to injury. Longoria lived up to the hype that surrounded him coming out of spring training, leading AL rookies in home runs (27), runs batted in (85), total bases (238), on-base percentage (.343) and slugging percentage (.531). He also emerged as a leader on the most surprising playoff team of the year. If he doesn't win the award this year, I give up.

Interesting that all three vote-getters come from playoff teams. I guess it shows the reliance that some of the better teams have on young players.

National League Rookie of the Year

Just Missed the Cut: Kosuke Fukodome OF Cubs, Gregor Blanco OF Braves, Hiroki Kuroda SP Dodgers
Both outfielders had a pretty low batting average (.257 and .251, respectively), but helped make up for it by finishing in the top two spots for walks among NL rookies, with 81 and 74, to bring their on-base percentages to a respectable .359 and .366. They also lack power, which is the main reason I didn't include them in the top three, although had they played in the AL instead and put up the same numbers, they may have cracked the ballot. Kuroda had remarkably similar numbers to my third place pick, but had a slightly higher ERA and fewer strikeouts, although admittedly much fewer walks too. It was almost a toss-up, but only one of the pitchers could make it, and I made my choice.

Third: Jair Jurrgens P Braves
Jurrgens led National League rookies in innings pitched (188.1), wins (13), and ERA (3.68). He would have been a good pick to make the NL All-Star team, although he didn't. He also seemed to spend time on virtually everyone's fantasy team this year. That may not be relevant to the rookie of the year voting, but it shows he was good enough to be picked up, yet not good enough to be kept. Sounds like a quality option at #3 to me.

Second: Joey Votto 1B Reds
Although not nearly as hyped as fellow Reds rookie Jay Bruce, or possibly even Johnny Cueto, this year, Votto quietly put together a solid rookie campaign. He led NL rookies in hits (156), HR (24), batting average (.297), total bases (266), on-base percentage (.368), and slugging percentage (.506). With numbers like that, it's hard to believe he isn't the rookie of the year, and perhaps he would be in many years. But this year one other rookie was better.

First: Geovany Soto C Cubs
Soto's batting numbers are almost identical to those of Votto, so why does he get the award while Votto settles for being the runner-up? Is it because he was voted to start the All-Star game? Not at all. Fukudome, Soto's teammate, was selected to start the All-Star game too, and he didn't even crack my top three. Soto gets the nod because he put up the same numbers while playing what is likely the most demanding position to play in baseball. He hit well, but also handled the pitching staff of a playoff team, which is not an easy task for a 25 year old rookie. That is why Geovany Soto is my pick to be the 2008 National League Rookie of the Year.

Wow, I didn't actually plan on writing that much about each player. I guess it remains to be seen whether I keep doing that, although I highly doubt I'll be writing that much for the MVP ones, which are ten players deep. Check back tomorrow for my take on the Cy Young winners.

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