NFL Playoffs Predictions

Using a similar method to the one used to predict the bowl games, I have devised a system for predicting the NFL Playoffs. Under this system, the playoff teams would be ranked as follows:

1. Patriots 4.2764
2. Colts 4.2592
3. Packers 2.7934
4. Cowboys 2.6441
5. Redskins 2.4540
6. Titans 2.3406
7. Jaguars 2.3165
8. Buccaneers 2.1508
9. Steelers 2.0636
10. Giants 2.0219
11. Chargers 1.9369
12. Seahawks 1.4917

Using these rankings, the playoff brackets would look like this:

4 Steelers
	5 Jaguars
5 Jaguars		2 Colts
	2 Colts
3 Chargers			1 Patriots
	6 Titans
6 Titans		1 Patriots
	1 Patriots

4 Bucs
	4 Bucs
5 Giants		2 Packers
	2 Packers
3 Seahawks			2 Packers
	6 Redskins
6 Redskins		1 Cowboys
	1 Cowboys

One odd note is that three of the four lower seeds are projected to win in the first round, which would mean there is not much of a home field advantage. Home field advantage was not factored into the prediction method, but, depending upon how accurate this is, it may be considered in the future.

In these projections, the Super Bowl matchup would be the still-undefeated New England Patriots versus the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI. Luckily for the Patriots, Desmond Howard retired five years ago, and hasn't been on the Packers since 1999. In fact, only 3 players remain on their respective teams from that Super Bowl. The only one remaining from the Packers is Brett Favre. From the Patriots, Tedy Bruschi sacked Favre twice in that game as a rookie, and Troy Brown played all 16 regular season games that year, but missed the Super Bowl with a hernia. Anyway, I will use a separate system to predict the Super Bowl, as it would have correctly predicted the last 10 Super Bowl winners (after they made the game mind you, when there are only two to choose from). Using this system, the result is as follows:

Super Bowl XLII
New England Patriots 1.0218
Green Bay Packers 0.2836

Therefore, I predict the Patriots will remain perfect and win Super Bowl XLII.

Results and Predictions for Remaining Bowls

Ok, so not so surprisingly, I've gotten lazy about posting my predictions/results lately. It doesn't really matter since nobody reads this thing anyway, but lets see how I've done up to now. First, the two BCS bowl games that I never posted predictions for:

Fiesta Bowl
West Virginia +210 .887
Oklahoma -250 .943

Orange Bowl
Kansas +140 1.020
Virginia Tech -160 .774

I split these two games, but lost a hypothetical $110 at the same time. That brings my totals so far to:

Bowl Season Predictions Record: 15-14
Bowl Season Net Winnings: -$930

Well, I haven't been as successful in predicting games this year as I was last year. Even if I get the last 3 bowl games correct, I'll only end up with 56%, a far cry from the 72% I got correct last year. This system is clearly a work in progress. And it's a good thing this money is only hypothetical, because I sure as hell don't have $930 to throw around. Anyway, without further adieu, the predictions for the last 3 bowl games, which can hopefully at least keep me over .500:

International Bowl
Ball State +350 .615
Rutgers -450 .653

GMAC Bowl
Tulsa -210 .576
Bowling Green +175 .557

BCS National Championship Game
Ohio State +155 .935
LSU -175 .835

Bowl Predictions - January 1

Since I doubt anyone reads this anyway, and due to my laziness, I don't feel like going through each bowl like I usually do. So here's the rundown and prediction of today's bowls:

Outback Bowl
Wisconsin +105 .616
Tennessee -125 .572

Cotton Bowl
Missouri -160 .767
Arkansas +140 .714

Capital One Bowl
Michigan +350 .625
Florida -450 .805

Gator Bowl
Texas Tech -240 .747
Virginia +200 .624

Rose Bowl
Illinois +410 .677
USC -525 .785

Sugar Bowl
Hawai'i +250 .935
Georgia -300 .691

Bowl Results - December 31

I didn't get the last of yesterday's games, the Chick fil A Bowl, up yesterday, so here's what my prediction was:

Auburn +110 .668
Clemson -150 .801

That prediction was wrong, as were most of the others for December 31. In fact, only one of yesterday's predictions was correct, and a hypothetical $550 was lost. I have a feeling I'm not going to have as good a record this year as I had last year.

Bowl Season Predictions Record: 10-10
Bowl Season Net Winnings: -$470