We've moved

The Sports Notebook has moved to: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/show/602118

A Few Random Thoughts on the Week That Was

Well, it's been awhile since I posted, but I'm back now, hopefully on a regular basis, so without further adieu, lets get to the week that was in sports.

•     The Phillies won the World Series after God tormented their fans for two extra days, delaying the last three innings with rain.  I suppose it may have been karma for the Philly fans, they did boo Santa Claus after all. I just think it would have been better if it started raining right after they won though.  I would think it would be harder to start fires in the rain.
      But in all seriousness, it was nice to see the city of Philadelphia get a major championship, although Jon Bon Jovi is upset that nobody cares that his Philadelphia Soul won the Arena League title. Philly fans are like cranky old people. They're angry and nobody particularly likes them, but it is nice to see them get something nice every once in awhile, just because it doesn't seem to happen often.
      On the flip side, I'm glad the Rays didn't win.  It isn't because I'm a bitter Boston fan - the Rays were a better team than the Sox this year, I admit that.  It is because, with apologies to the real Rays fans who have been fans for years, the majority of Rays fans just found out there was a team a few months ago.  They didn't even sell out game 7 of the ALCS.  And don't even get me started on the cowbells, which are actually against Tropicana Field rules (see #9).  Although I do have to admit, I still find it hard to root against Carlos Pena.
      Finally, as a Red Sox fan, it was nice to see longtime major leaguers and former Sox Jamie Moyer and Matt Stairs finally get rings, as well as former Sox manager Jimy Williams get another one.




•     Now onto the NBA, where Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is really starting to scare me.  You see, during last year's playoffs, my brother started joking that certain coaches looked like they could be serial killers, perhaps killing in each NBA city they visit over the course of the year. Flip Saunders was one. Gregg Popovich was another.  So this year, I turn on my TV to watch the Spurs play, and let me just say, the beard isn't exactly changing my mind.  It makes him look even more deranged.  I know the Saw movies aren't real, but I'm still getting worried that Popovich is the Jigsaw killer.  It is at the point where, if I saw Gregg Popovich on the street, I think I would run away from him in terror, which is not exactly the reaction I would expect to have if I ran into the NBA's best coach.
      Maybe I'm just crazy.  Maybe the beard has nothing to do with his being a deranged serial killer.  The only other logical explanation, of course, is that the Spurs are having a beard contest.  That would explain Tim Duncan's decision to go with the full beard this year.  I would still have to say Popovich's beard is better, but a darkhorse contender is emerging on the team in Matt Bonner. 




•     Now to college football where it is being reported that Phillip Fulmer is stepping down as head coach at Tennessee following this season.  And I know the perfect replacement for him: Herm Edwards.  Think about it.  A coach who has had limited success in the NFL, first with the Jets, then with another team, and who is also known as a real nice guy, goes to a major college program and turns it around.  Remind you of anyone?  Pete Carroll did it with USC, now it's Herm's chance to do it with Tennessee.  I know what you're thinking, Herm Edwards is still the head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs.  But does anyone expect him to be after this year is over?  With the way that organization has been going in recent years, I guess the answer is "who knows?"  But still, I think it should happen.  Pencil it in now: Herm Edwards, Head Coach, University of Tennessee Volunteers.




•     And finally, to the NFL.  Well, kind of to the NFL.  During halftime of tonight's Monday Night Football, Chris Berman will have interviews with both the Presidential candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama.  While doing the interview, here are 12 things that Berman will have to hold back to avoid calling the candidates:
  
  
  12. Barack Barack Barack Barack Barack Barack....gone!
  11. Sarah "Led ZepPalin"
  10. Joe "Street Biden Man"
  9. Barack "B-I-N-G-Obama"
  8. Barack "Obama-lama-ding-dong"
  7. John "Singing In McCain"
  6. Joe "Saturday Night's Alright for Biden"
  5. Sarah "Van Palin"
  4. "Barocky Mountain High" Obama
  3. John "Citizen McCain"
  2. "Barock the Casbama"
  1. John "And I wonder, Still I wonder, Who'll stop McCain"

That's all I've got for today.

AL MVP Race.....Photo Finish? Not Really

Here's my picks for American League Most Valuable Player. As always, this is what my hypothetical ballot would look like.

American League Most Valuable Player

Missing the Cut:

Francisco Rodriguez RHP Angels
Just the high number of saves isn't enough to get him on the ballot, as it shows more that the Angels won a lot of close games than it does that he was deserving of MVP.

Carlos Quentin OF White Sox, Ian Kinsler 2B Rangers, Milton Bradley DH Rangers
All three put up great numbers when they were in there, but didn't get to the plate enough this season to crack my MVP ballot. Although if it was a 13-man ballot, these three might be 11, 12, and 13 respectively.

Any member of the Rays, White Sox, or Angels
Like I wrote in my NL MVP ballot, it was an odd year in that most of the playoff teams didn't have a standout player. Carlos Pena or Evan Longoria of the Rays may have cracked my ballot had they played more, but injuries (and time in the minors in Longoria's case) prevented that from happening. As I already explained, Quentin of the White Sox would have cracked my ballot, and probably been at least in the top 5, if he hadn't gotten hurt. The Angels' best player this year was still probably Vladimir Guerrero, but he had the worst year he's had in years and was not deserving of an MVP vote in my eyes.

10. Roy Halladay RHP Blue Jays
While injuries and ineffectiveness took out the rest of Toronto's rotation, Halladay was consistently an innings eater. Perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the league.

9. Justin Morneau 1B Twins
Some people say he should win the award, but he wasn't even the best player on his team. Still, a good player who had a good year.

8. Aubrey Huff DH Orioles
Quietly had an excellent year, finishing 4th in the league in VORP. Loses a few points due to lack of defense.

7. Cliff Lee LHP Indians
The best pitcher in the AL this year, 24 of the Indians 81 wins came in his starts.

6. Alex Rodriguez 3B Yankees
Still among the best players in the league, despite the boos from Yankees fans.

5. Kevin Youkilis 1B Red Sox
Hit well consistently throughout the whole year while playing great defense. Would probably be ranked higher had he not missed a few weeks due to injury.

4. Josh Hamilton OF Rangers
Great story about a guy who turned his life, and his baseball career, around. Numbers dropped off in the second half of the season, but still a legitimate MVP choice.

3. Grady Sizemore OF Indians
Great all-around player, is there anything he doesn't do well?

2. Joe Mauer C Twins
Good defensive catcher who this year became the first AL catcher to win two batting titles. He's also the only one to win even one.

1. Dustin Pedroia 2B Red Sox
Following a very good rookie year, I expected his numbers to dip a bit this year. Boy was I wrong. Led AL in hits, runs, and doubles while becoming my pick for 2008 AL MVP.

NL MVP pick........Surprised? Probably Not

Ok, so I didn't quite get this one done when I said I would, but I'm still getting it done before the awards are actually announced. This is my take on the National League Most Valuable Player race, and what my ballot would look like if I had a vote.

National League Most Valuable Player

Missing the Cut:

Manny Ramirez OF Dodgers
Put up great numbers in his time with the Dodgers, but wasn't there for long enough to garner an MVP vote from me

Carlos Delgado 1B Mets, Ryan Howard 1B Phillies
Both considered MVP candidates due to power numbers, but not even best candidates on their respective teams. In fact, there are 4 Mets I'd put ahead of Delgado (more on that soon) and 2 Phillies I'd put ahead of Howard.

Carlos Beltran OF Mets
One of the Mets I'd rank ahead of Delgado, when I finished making my list, I couldn't believe Beltran wasn't on it, but there wasn't anyone I'd replace him with. I guess that makes him my pick for 11th.

Any member of the Dodgers, Brewers, or Cubs
I know MVP candidates tend to come from winning teams, and these teams all made the playoffs. However, this year was odd (in both leagues) in that most of the good teams didn't really have any standout players. They were more of a team effort. Baseball isn't like basketball where one player can make a gigantic difference in record, it is much more individual. That can leave the playoff teams without an MVP candidate, while some non-playoff teams (including a team that choked a spot away again) with multiple candidates.

10. Tim Lincecum RHP Giants
Just think of the difference in the Giants odds of winning when he was pitching compared to when anyone else was. That's why he cracks this ballot.

9. Matt Holliday OF Rockies
Although not as good as last year when he could have legitimately won the award, still deserves a spot on the ballot, even if it is much lower.

8. Johan Santana LHP Mets
1b to Lincecum's 1a on my Cy Young ballot, gets higher spot on MVP ballot due to impressive performance down the stretch to keep Mets alive.

7. Jose Reyes SS Mets
6. David Wright 3B Mets
Mets had quite a few good players and these two were the best. It's not their fault that bullpen was bad.

5. Hanley Ramirez SS Marlins
Although he should win this award eventually, it isn't going to be this year.

4. Chipper Jones 3B Braves
Remember him? The 1999 MVP had one of the most impressive seasons of his career. If he could've stayed healthy, he would be higher on this list.

3. Lance Berkman 1B Astros
Started out strong before dropping off a bit, still among the best in the NL this year.

2. Chase Utley 2B Phillies
The best player on his team comes close to making it 3 straight MVPs for Phillies infielders, but can't beat out #1.

1. Albert Pujols 1B Cardinals
Simply the best player in the National League. As good as some of these other guys are, this one is no contest to me.

That's it for me, the AL MVP ballot will be up tomorrow. Think your favorite player was snubbed? Leave a comment.

Cy Young Award - And the winners are.....

I'm back with awards talk. This time, my hypothetical ballots for the AL and NL Cy Young Awards.

American League Cy Young Award

Nowhere Near My Ballot: Francisco Rodriguez RHP Angels
K-Rod had 62 saves this year, which has had some people saying he should win not only the Cy Young Award, but also the MVP. That is a joke. His 62 saves, while impressive, were more a result of opportunity (69 chances) than greatness. Don't get me wrong, I think Rodriguez is an excellent closer. But that doesn't mean I would vote for him for either of those awards. In fact, as far as closers go, there are at least 4 in the American League who I think had better seasons this year: Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, Joe Nathan, and Jonathan Papelbon.

Third: Jon Lester LHP Boston
Lester followed up a year where he beat cancer and then the Rockies in the clinching game 4 of the World Series with a fantastic season where he established himself as a legitimate ace. Although only being counted on to be the third pitcher for the Red Sox this year, Lester emerged as a better pitcher than both Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka (despite Dice-K's W-L record). Other options that crossed my mind included Ervin Santana, John Danks, Matsuzaka, and Rivera, but Lester gets the nod here.

Second: Roy Halladay RHP Blue Jays
Halladay is consistently among the top pitchers in the major leagues, and yet he doesn't get the attention he seems to deserve. Outside of Johan Santana, I'm not sure if there is any other pitcher I would rather have on my team. A workhorse who sometimes eats innings at the expense of his ERA, Halladay had 246 innings pitched, which was over 20 more than any other pitcher in the league. Despite this, his 2.78 ERA was second in the league. In many years, 20-11 with a 2.78 ERA would be good enough to win the award, but not this year.

First: Cliff Lee LHP Indians
In my 2006 fantasy baseball draft, Lee was the first starting pitcher I drafted. After all, he was a 28 year old left handed pitcher coming off an 18-5 season. So what happened? Lee had an average 2006 and a bad 2007 before being sent back to the minors. Needless to say, there weren't exactly high hopes for Lee heading into this season, as the Indians hoped he could just help fill out the rotation led by CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. So then what happened? Sabathia struggled early before recovering and being traded, Carmona struggled for pretty much the whole season, and Lee went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA, getting 27 percent of the Indians' wins on his way to being my pick for the 2008 AL Cy Young Award.

National League Cy Young Award

Third: Cole Hamels LHP Phillies
Much like in the AL, this is a two-horse race, which leaves a lot of possibilities for the third spot on the ballot. I decided on Hamels, who went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA. He also had a quality 3.7 K/BB ratio and was second in the NL in innings pitched with 227.1. Other options here included Ryan Dempster, Chad Billingsley, Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb, and Sabathia.

Second: Johan Santana LHP Mets
Instead of first and second, the top two pitchers in the NL are more like 1a and 1b. But somebody has to finish first and somebody has to finish second. Santana led the league in innings pitched (234.1) and ERA (2.53). I still consider him the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, despite not quite being the best this year. Although the Mets didn't make the playoffs, it was not his fault, and I can't help but wonder how many more wins the Twins would have had if they hadn't traded him. Still, I thought he wasn't quite as good this year as my choice for number one.

First: Tim Lincecum RHP Giants
This has been simply an excellent year for Lincecum, despite the fact that the team he was on was pretty awful. He went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA this year, getting 25 percent of the Giants' wins. On top of that, he led the National League in strikeouts with 265, a full 59 more than Santana, who finished second in that category. This was awfully close, but that was the biggest stat to tip the scales in Lincecum's favor, and it helps in my decision that Tim Lincecum should win the 2008 NL Cy Young Award.

That's it for the pitchers. Tomorrow, I'll give my thoughts on the NL MVP.

My Take on the AL and NL Rookie of the Year

With baseball's regular season ending and its second season beginning, it's time to look at some awards. First up, the Rookie of the Year Award.

I will rank the players like I actually had a ballot in the voting, which I clearly don't. The ROY ballot lets you vote for first, second, and third choices, with the points breakdown being 5-3-1 towards the final tally. Of course, I'm the only one doing it here, so the final tally is my order. So without further adieu...

American League Rookie of the Year

Just Missed the Cut: Denard Span OF Twins, Mike Aviles SS Royals, Joba Chamberlain P Yankees
All three of these players would get more consideration if they had more playing time, assuming of course their numbers didn't drop off with the increase in at bats, or in Chamberlain's case, innings. But with the time each missed, I can't justify putting them on the ballot ahead of any of my choices.

Third: Alexei Ramirez 2B White Sox
Another case where had he gotten more plate appearances, I would have ranked him higher. The Cuban Missile burst onto the scene after leaving Cuba about a year ago. He displayed good power for a playoff team, and played multiple positions. He has drawn comparisons to Alfonso Soriano, which, looking at his numbers, seem fair, both in the fact that he has good power and hits for a good average, but rarely walks. He led AL rookies in batting average (.290), but only had an on-base percentage of .317. He also hit four grand slams this year, which is a rookie record.

Second: Jacoby Ellsbury OF Red Sox
Among all the options here, Ellsbury got the most consistent playing time, as the only AL rookie to get 550 plate appearances (he had 609, 86 more than Daric Barton, who had the second most, and 100 more than Ramirez). He probably didn't quite live up to some of the monstrous expectations following his excellent play in last year's World Series, but despite that, he still led all American League rookies in runs (98), hits (155), and triples (7), and led the entire American League in stolen bases (50).

First: Evan Longoria 3B Rays
Unquestionably the best rookie in the American League this year, with the only questions coming due to time missed due to injury. Longoria lived up to the hype that surrounded him coming out of spring training, leading AL rookies in home runs (27), runs batted in (85), total bases (238), on-base percentage (.343) and slugging percentage (.531). He also emerged as a leader on the most surprising playoff team of the year. If he doesn't win the award this year, I give up.

Interesting that all three vote-getters come from playoff teams. I guess it shows the reliance that some of the better teams have on young players.

National League Rookie of the Year

Just Missed the Cut: Kosuke Fukodome OF Cubs, Gregor Blanco OF Braves, Hiroki Kuroda SP Dodgers
Both outfielders had a pretty low batting average (.257 and .251, respectively), but helped make up for it by finishing in the top two spots for walks among NL rookies, with 81 and 74, to bring their on-base percentages to a respectable .359 and .366. They also lack power, which is the main reason I didn't include them in the top three, although had they played in the AL instead and put up the same numbers, they may have cracked the ballot. Kuroda had remarkably similar numbers to my third place pick, but had a slightly higher ERA and fewer strikeouts, although admittedly much fewer walks too. It was almost a toss-up, but only one of the pitchers could make it, and I made my choice.

Third: Jair Jurrgens P Braves
Jurrgens led National League rookies in innings pitched (188.1), wins (13), and ERA (3.68). He would have been a good pick to make the NL All-Star team, although he didn't. He also seemed to spend time on virtually everyone's fantasy team this year. That may not be relevant to the rookie of the year voting, but it shows he was good enough to be picked up, yet not good enough to be kept. Sounds like a quality option at #3 to me.

Second: Joey Votto 1B Reds
Although not nearly as hyped as fellow Reds rookie Jay Bruce, or possibly even Johnny Cueto, this year, Votto quietly put together a solid rookie campaign. He led NL rookies in hits (156), HR (24), batting average (.297), total bases (266), on-base percentage (.368), and slugging percentage (.506). With numbers like that, it's hard to believe he isn't the rookie of the year, and perhaps he would be in many years. But this year one other rookie was better.

First: Geovany Soto C Cubs
Soto's batting numbers are almost identical to those of Votto, so why does he get the award while Votto settles for being the runner-up? Is it because he was voted to start the All-Star game? Not at all. Fukudome, Soto's teammate, was selected to start the All-Star game too, and he didn't even crack my top three. Soto gets the nod because he put up the same numbers while playing what is likely the most demanding position to play in baseball. He hit well, but also handled the pitching staff of a playoff team, which is not an easy task for a 25 year old rookie. That is why Geovany Soto is my pick to be the 2008 National League Rookie of the Year.

Wow, I didn't actually plan on writing that much about each player. I guess it remains to be seen whether I keep doing that, although I highly doubt I'll be writing that much for the MVP ones, which are ten players deep. Check back tomorrow for my take on the Cy Young winners.

Davis Fires Kiffin......I'm in Shock

The Raiders finally fired Head Coach Lane Kiffin today, ending months of speculation that his tenure as head coach would not last much longer. This came as a shock to nobody, including Kiffin himself.

The speculation began following last season, when Kiffin, the youngest head coach in the league (only 33 years old now), had just finished his first season as head coach of the Raiders. Kiffin wanted to fire defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and replace him with his father, Monte Kiffin, one of the best coordinators in NFL history. Owner Al Davis wouldn't let him do it. Davis tried to get Kiffin to resign, Kiffin refused. Since then, it has been pretty clear that it wouldn't be a matter of whether Davis fired Kiffin, but more a matter of when.

The matter of how does bring up some questions, however. Rather than fire Kiffin in a face-to-face meeting, Davis chose to do it over the phone. Personally, I would have preferred a singing telegram, but that might just be me. Perhaps more importantly, Kiffin was fired without pay. Now I'm no lawyer, and I haven't seen his contract, but I find it a little hard to believe that Davis can do that. In fact, continuing to get paid may have been the biggest reason Kiffin refused to resign, because resignation equals no money while pink slip equals money. A simple formula, really. Now it remains to be seen whether this will ring true.

In Kiffin's one plus years as coach, the Raiders have clearly become more competitive, although the record hasn't shown that as much. It also usually takes more than a year to turn a team around. Case in point, Bill Belichick's first year with the Patriots, the team went 5-11. The following year, when they eventually went on to win the Super Bowl, they started out 1-3, which, wouldn't you know it, is the Raiders' record right now. And of course since that season, the Patriots have won 2 more Super Bowls, appeared in one more, and had a winning record in every season.

Now I'm not saying Kiffin is another Belichick, a Hall of Fame coach, I'm merely pointing out that these things can take a little bit of time, and patience isn't a bad thing. Of course, if history is any indication, Al Davis doesn't know the meaning of patience. Interim coach Tom Cable, who was tabbed to replace Kiffin, is the team's fifth head coach since the start of the 2003 season, when their streak of season's with a losing record began. For those counting at home, that is five coaches in six years. If that isn't a lack of patience, I don't know what is.

Which brings up my next point. Bill Belichick has control of personnel on the Patriots, something that Kiffin never had with the Raiders. In fact, he was against some of the major free agent signings in the offseason. Who does have control? Al Davis of course. With all those coaching changes, Davis is the only thing constant with the team. Not only is he the one who brings in the players, but he also brings in the coaches. But like a child with ADD who tires of a toy quickly, Davis tires of his coaches and sends them packing.

As for Kiffin, as I mentioned earlier, he is only 33 years old. He will get another job, whether as a head coach or an assistant, and should eventually be an NFL head coach again. Who knows, maybe he'll "pull a Mike Shanahan." Shanahan, of course, was a young coach (37), much like Kiffin, who was fired by Al Davis during his second season at the helm of the Raiders, much like Kiffin. In fact, Shanahan even still believes he is owed money by Davis, which may or may not end up happening to Kiffin. But what did Shanahan do after he was fired? After becoming an assistant on the Broncos, then the 49ers, he was hired as head coach of the (Raiders division rival) Broncos in 1995, six years after being fired. Since then, he has become one of the best and most respected coaches in the league, winning 62.7 percent of his games and two Super Bowls since then.

Will Kiffin end up doing something similar, going to another AFC West team, being more successful, and rubbing it in Al Davis' face? I don't know. But I do know that the Kansas City Chiefs head coaching job may be open soon. I'm just saying....

First Brady, Now Beckett....

Three weeks ago, I wrote about a Boston area team's losing a star player, and with that loss, possibly also losing their chance at a championship. Now I'm getting worried there is a theme starting to develop.

Josh Beckett has a strained oblique and will have his planned Game 1 start pushed back to (hopefully) Game 3. Mike Lowell is still having hip problems and his status is up in the air. Ditto for JD Drew and his back. So does that mean the Red Sox World Series hopes are up in the air too?

While these are three major blows to the team's chances, they could end up not being that big of a deal. All three players could end up playing, and this would be much ado about nothing. But what if the injuries are all worse than expcted? What if Beckett isn't ready by Game 3, and Lowell and Drew are both too hurt to play at all?

While it would make things more difficult, the Red Sox have enough depth that they could possibly win without these guys. In Drew's absence, both Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury, who were mostly splitting time in centerfield while Drew was in right, have been hitting big.

Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka, while not possesing the same postseason resume as Beckett, have put up better numbers this year. The two of them should be good, with the hope that Paul Byrd or Tim Wakefield can fill in and pitch well in the event that Beckett can't go in Game 3. They should be alright.

If Lowell is out, the fill-in options are probably not as good, with possible replacements including Alex Cora, or possibly Sean Casey or Jeff Bailey at first with Kevin Youkilis moving to third. There is even the small possibility that Lowell or Drew is healthy even to DH but not play the field, in which case they could play David Ortiz at first and Youks at third. I don't think that's likely, but hey, it's possible.

Hopefully, the injury situation turns out to be alright. And if not, they still have a pretty good shot at doing well.

I just hope I don't end up writing about a serious injury to Kevin Garnett or Paul Pierce in three weeks.

The Blog Returns........Are the Patriots Done After Week One?

As we rode the shuttle bus back to the parking lot this past Saturday, following BC's disappointing loss to Georgia Tech, the mood wasn't particularly upbeat. After all, the new quarterback, Chris Crane, had played terribly in the ACC opener, the first game of the post-Matt Ryan era.

"If this is how the quarterback play is going to be this year," I said, "we're going to be in for a long season."

It isn't that we expected Crane to be another Matt Ryan. We just were hoping he could be competent enough that the running game and excellent defense could win some games in what, at least early on, looks like a weak year for ACC football. Following his first ACC start, however, pessimism became the overriding theme on that bus ride.

But our spirits changed a bit when we remembered how we would cope with a BC home loss a few years ago, before we expected them to win every home game.

”At least we have the Patriots.”

Flash forward to Sunday, 7:27 left in the first quarter of the first game of the Patriots’ season. Following a completed pass to Randy Moss, Bernard Pollard of the Chiefs hit reigning league MVP Tom Brady low. Brady remained down on the field, clearly in a lot of pain. The replays showed the left knee bend in a way that a knee is not supposed to bend.

Brady did not return to the game. Following the conclusion of the game and into the night, various sources reported that Brady has a torn ACL and will not play another game this season. The Super Bowl favorites lost their leader as the team’s fans lost much optimism for this season.

The injury had almost a devastating effect on fans like me, fans who couldn’t wait for the new season to begin after the unmatched unbeaten run in 2007 ended with the devastating loss in the Super Bowl. This first game, against the lowly Chiefs, was supposed to provide some healing from that loss. It was supposed to show the fans that last year was last year, but there will be no hangover from that loss; the Patriots are back and a team to be reckoned with. But instead, midway through the first quarter of the first game, the best player in the game was knocked out for the year.

Suddenly, instead of being freed from the Super Bowl loss, the fans are pulled back into it. That devastating feeling of having your optimism crushed came back. Except this time, instead of losing the Super Bowl in Week 21 like they did last year, the Patriots may have lost it in Week 1. This was supposed to be their redemption year. Now it may end up a forgotten year.

So where do the Patriots turn now? Their starting quarterback for the remainder of the season (barring injury of course) is Matt Cassel. The same Matt Cassel who admitted following the game that the last time he played that much in a non-exhibition was in high school. The same Matt Cassel who played so poorly in preseason that most people didn’t expect him to even make the team, and many fans were downright confused when he did. The same Matt Cassel who has made a career out of being a backup to the best, whether at USC behind Carson Palmer and then Matt Leinart or with the Patriots behind Brady. Now it is that Matt Cassel’s turn to step into the spotlight and hope it doesn’t burn him.

Cassel has always joked that as the backup to two Heisman Trophy winners and now the reigning NFL MVP, it was possible that he was actually the second best quarterback in the country. Now would be a nice time to show that, but he doesn’t have to be another Brady. Just like Crane taking over for Ryan, you don’t expect him to be the best. You just hope he can be competent enough that the running game and defense can win some games in a weak AFC East.

The best case scenario for the Patriots this year is a Super Bowl title. Even without Tom Brady, they have enough talent to win and a coaching staff that can figure out how to get it done. They won’t dominate like they did last year but as the Giants showed, you don’t have to dominate the whole season, you just have to get to the Super Bowl and play a great game once you get there. Without Brady, the team also now has a cause to rally behind, that they can win it without him, which from a motivational standpoint is always good.

Realistically, even if they don’t win the Super Bowl, with a weak schedule, the Patriots should at least make the playoffs. They will change the offense to rely more on the run, and Cassel won’t have to do nearly as much as Brady did. Although when he needs to throw the ball, it will be nice to have Randy Moss to throw it up to.

Although I initially was devastated by the Brady injury, I now feel a bit of optimism about this season. Maybe not quite as much as I did on Saturday, but I still think this Patriots team is going to be very good. And if not?

“At least we have the Red Sox.”

NFL Playoffs Predictions

Using a similar method to the one used to predict the bowl games, I have devised a system for predicting the NFL Playoffs. Under this system, the playoff teams would be ranked as follows:

1. Patriots 4.2764
2. Colts 4.2592
3. Packers 2.7934
4. Cowboys 2.6441
5. Redskins 2.4540
6. Titans 2.3406
7. Jaguars 2.3165
8. Buccaneers 2.1508
9. Steelers 2.0636
10. Giants 2.0219
11. Chargers 1.9369
12. Seahawks 1.4917

Using these rankings, the playoff brackets would look like this:

4 Steelers
	5 Jaguars
5 Jaguars		2 Colts
	2 Colts
3 Chargers			1 Patriots
	6 Titans
6 Titans		1 Patriots
	1 Patriots

4 Bucs
	4 Bucs
5 Giants		2 Packers
	2 Packers
3 Seahawks			2 Packers
	6 Redskins
6 Redskins		1 Cowboys
	1 Cowboys

One odd note is that three of the four lower seeds are projected to win in the first round, which would mean there is not much of a home field advantage. Home field advantage was not factored into the prediction method, but, depending upon how accurate this is, it may be considered in the future.

In these projections, the Super Bowl matchup would be the still-undefeated New England Patriots versus the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI. Luckily for the Patriots, Desmond Howard retired five years ago, and hasn't been on the Packers since 1999. In fact, only 3 players remain on their respective teams from that Super Bowl. The only one remaining from the Packers is Brett Favre. From the Patriots, Tedy Bruschi sacked Favre twice in that game as a rookie, and Troy Brown played all 16 regular season games that year, but missed the Super Bowl with a hernia. Anyway, I will use a separate system to predict the Super Bowl, as it would have correctly predicted the last 10 Super Bowl winners (after they made the game mind you, when there are only two to choose from). Using this system, the result is as follows:

Super Bowl XLII
New England Patriots 1.0218
Green Bay Packers 0.2836

Therefore, I predict the Patriots will remain perfect and win Super Bowl XLII.

Results and Predictions for Remaining Bowls

Ok, so not so surprisingly, I've gotten lazy about posting my predictions/results lately. It doesn't really matter since nobody reads this thing anyway, but lets see how I've done up to now. First, the two BCS bowl games that I never posted predictions for:

Fiesta Bowl
West Virginia +210 .887
Oklahoma -250 .943

Orange Bowl
Kansas +140 1.020
Virginia Tech -160 .774

I split these two games, but lost a hypothetical $110 at the same time. That brings my totals so far to:

Bowl Season Predictions Record: 15-14
Bowl Season Net Winnings: -$930

Well, I haven't been as successful in predicting games this year as I was last year. Even if I get the last 3 bowl games correct, I'll only end up with 56%, a far cry from the 72% I got correct last year. This system is clearly a work in progress. And it's a good thing this money is only hypothetical, because I sure as hell don't have $930 to throw around. Anyway, without further adieu, the predictions for the last 3 bowl games, which can hopefully at least keep me over .500:

International Bowl
Ball State +350 .615
Rutgers -450 .653

GMAC Bowl
Tulsa -210 .576
Bowling Green +175 .557

BCS National Championship Game
Ohio State +155 .935
LSU -175 .835

Bowl Predictions - January 1

Since I doubt anyone reads this anyway, and due to my laziness, I don't feel like going through each bowl like I usually do. So here's the rundown and prediction of today's bowls:

Outback Bowl
Wisconsin +105 .616
Tennessee -125 .572

Cotton Bowl
Missouri -160 .767
Arkansas +140 .714

Capital One Bowl
Michigan +350 .625
Florida -450 .805

Gator Bowl
Texas Tech -240 .747
Virginia +200 .624

Rose Bowl
Illinois +410 .677
USC -525 .785

Sugar Bowl
Hawai'i +250 .935
Georgia -300 .691

Bowl Results - December 31

I didn't get the last of yesterday's games, the Chick fil A Bowl, up yesterday, so here's what my prediction was:

Auburn +110 .668
Clemson -150 .801

That prediction was wrong, as were most of the others for December 31. In fact, only one of yesterday's predictions was correct, and a hypothetical $550 was lost. I have a feeling I'm not going to have as good a record this year as I had last year.

Bowl Season Predictions Record: 10-10
Bowl Season Net Winnings: -$470