Bowl Prediction - Insight Bowl

Insight Bowl

Date: December 31, 2007
Time: 5:30 PM
Location: Sun Devil Stadium
Tempe, Arizona
TV: NFL Network
Payout: $1.2 Million
Matchup: Indiana (7-5) vs Oklahoma State (6-6)
Money Lines
Indiana +180
Oklahoma State -220
Prediction
Indiana .566
Oklahoma State .538

I predict Indiana will win and bet a hypothetical $100 on the Hoosiers.

Bowl Prediction - Music City Bowl

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl

Date: December 31, 2007
Time: 4 PM
Location: LP Field
Nashville, Tennessee
TV: ESPN
Payout: $1.5 Million
Matchup: Florida State (7-5) vs Kentucky (7-5)
Money Lines
Florida State +250
Kentucky -300
Prediction
Florida State .525
Kentucky .594

I predict Kentucky will win and bet a hypothetical $300 on the Wildcats.

Bowl Prediction - Humanitarian Bowl

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl

Date: December 31, 2007
Time: 2 PM
Location: Bronco Stadium
Boise, Idaho
TV: ESPN2
Payout: $750,000
Matchup: Fresno State (8-4) vs Georgia Tech (7-5)
Money Lines
Fresno State +180
Georgia Tech -220
Prediction
Fresno State .564
Georgia Tech .630

I predict Georgia Tech will win and bet a hypothetical $220 on the Yellow Jackets.

Bowl Prediction - Sun Bowl

Brut Sun Bowl

Date: December 31, 2007
Time: 2 PM
Location: Sun Bowl Stadium
El Paso, Texas
TV: CBS
Payout: $1.9 Million
Matchup: Oregon (8-4) vs South Florida (9-3)
Money Lines
Oregon +180
South Florida -220
Prediction
Oregon .721
South Florida .769

I predict South Florida will win and bet a hypothetical $220 on the Bulls.

Bowl Prediction - Armed Forces Bowl

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

Date: December 31, 2007
Time: 12:30 PM
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium
Fort Worth, Texas
TV: ESPN
Payout: $750,000
Matchup: Air Force (9-3) vs California (6-6)
Money Lines
Air Force +165
California -190
Prediction
Air Force .715
California .525

I predict Air Force will win and bet a hypothetical $100 on the Falcons. Did you really expect me to pick against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl?

Bowl Season Predictions Record: 9-5
Bowl Season Net Winnings: $80

Bowl Prediction - Independence Bowl

PetroSun Independence Bowl

Date: December 30, 2007
Time: 8 PM
Location: Independence Stadium
Shreveport, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
Payout: $1.1 Million
Matchup: Alabama (6-6) vs Colorado (6-6)
Money Lines
Alabama -190
Colorado +165
Prediction
Alabama .610
Colorado .436

I predict Alabama will win and bet a hypothetical $190 on the Crimson Tide.

Bowl Season Predictions Record: 8-5
Bowl Season Net Winnings: -$20

Bowl Prediction - Alamo Bowl

Valero Alamo Bowl

Date: December 29, 2007
Time: 8 PM
Location: Alamodome
San Antonio, Texas
TV: ESPN
Payout: $2.2 Million
Matchup: Penn State (8-4) vs Texas A&M (7-5)
Money Lines
Penn State -220
Texas A&M +180
Prediction
Penn State .755
Texas A&M .547

I predict Penn State will win coach Joe Paterno's 500th game and bet a hypothetical $220 on the Nittany Lions.

Bowl Prediction - Liberty Bowl

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Date: December 29, 2007
Time: 4:30 PM
Location: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Memphis, Tennessee
TV: ESPN
Payout: $1.7 Million
Matchup: Central Florida (10-3) vs Mississippi State (7-5)
Money Lines
Central Florida -150
Mississippi State +130
Prediction
Central Florida .718
Mississippi State .455

I predict UCF will win and bet a hypothetical $150 on the Knights.

Bowl Prediction - Meineke Car Care Bowl

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Date: December 29, 2007
Time: 1 PM
Location: Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: ESPN
Payout: $750,000
Matchup: Connecticut (9-3) vs Wake Forest (8-4)
Money Lines
Connecticut +110
Wake Forest -130
Prediction
Connecticut .695
Wake Forest .594

I predict UConn will win and bet a hypothetical $100 on the Huskies.

Bowl Season Predictions Record: 8-3
Bowl Season Net Winnings: $130

Bowl Prediction - Emerald Bowl

Emerald Bowl

Date: December 28, 2007
Time: 8:30 PM
Location: AT&T Park
San Francisco, California
TV: ESPN
Payout: $750,000
Matchup: Maryland (6-6) vs Oregon State (8-4)
Money Lines
Maryland +175
Oregon State -210
Prediction
Maryland .574
Oregon State .580

I predict Oregon State will win and bet a hypothetical $210 on the Beavers.

Bowl Prediction - Texas Bowl

Texas Bowl

Date: December 28, 2007
Time: 8 PM
Location: Reliant Stadium
Houston Texas
TV: NFL Network
Payout: $612,500
Matchup: TCU (7-5) vs Houston (8-4)
Money Lines
TCU -230
Houston +190
Prediction
TCU .629
Houston .626

I predict TCU will win and bet a hypothetical $230 on the Horned Frogs.

Bowl Prediction - Champs Sports Bowl

Champs Sports Bowl

Date: December 28, 2007
Time: 5 PM
Location: Citrus Bowl
Orlando, Florida
TV: ESPN
Payout: $2.2 Million
Matchup: Boston College (10-3) vs Michigan State (7-5)
Money Lines
Boston College -230
Michigan State +190
Prediction
Boston College .662
Michigan State .594

This should be a win for BC, as Michigan State hasn't been that good this year. BC gets screwed over a bit in the bowls every year due to the fact that their fans (like me) don't travel very well, so despite the fact that they lost the ACC Title Game, they only get the 4th highest ACC bowl and end up facing the 7th place Big Ten team. I don't expect this one to be too close unless BC's kicking game struggles. BC's 17 fifth year seniors should go out with a win, which would be the eighth straight bowl win for the team - the longest active streak in the nation. I predict Boston College will win and bet a hypothetical $230 on the Eagles.

Bowl Season Predictions Record: 5-3
Bowl Season Net Winnings: -$170

Bowl Prediction - Holiday Bowl

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl

Date: December 27, 2007
Time: 8 PM
Location: Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, California
TV: ESPN
Payout: $2.2 Million
Matchup: Texas (9-3) vs Arizona State (10-2)
Money Lines
Texas -135
Arizona State +115
Prediction
Texas .681
Arizona State .727

Two good teams are in this one and the second bowl game in San Diego should be competitive, but I predict Arizona State to win and bet a hypothetical $100 on the Sun Devils.

Bowl Season Predictions Record: 5-2
Bowl Season Net Winnings: -$70

Bowl Prediction - Motor City Bowl

Motor City Bowl

Date: December 26, 2007
Time: 7:30 PM
Location: Ford Field
Detroit, Michigan
TV: ESPN
Payout: $750, 000
Matchup: Central Michigan (8-5) vs Purdue (7-5)
Money Lines
Central Michigan +260
Purdue -320
Prediction
Central Michigan .468
Purdue .644

This will be the second time these teams have played this year, but unlike my pick for the Las Vegas Bowl, I'm predicting a season sweep here. I predict Purdue to win this game and bet a hypothetical $320 on the Boilermakers.

Bowl Prediction - Hawai'i Bowl

Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl

I didn't actually post this one in time, so no game information, just the lines and my prediction:
Money Lines
Boise State (10-2) -470
East Carolina (7-5) +370
Prediction
Boise State .921
East Carolina .505

This was actually the largest margin in my predictions for all the bowl games, and I wasn't expecting this game to be close. Neither were the oddsmakers, apparently, with the high money lines. The game turned out to be close, and on top of that, ECU won, so I lost a hypothetical $470 on this one. East Carolina is the first underdog to win this bowl season, although I picked an underdog (Memphis) in one of the other games, so I've now got two losses on my record.

Bowl Season Predictions Record: 4-2
Bowl Season Net Winnings: -$170

Bowl Prediction - Las Vegas Bowl

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl

Date: December 22, 2007
Time: 8 PM
Location: Sam Boyd Stadium
Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: ESPN
Payout: $1 Million
Matchup: UCLA (6-6) vs BYU (10-2)
Money Lines
UCLA +210
BYU -250
Prediction
UCLA .502
BYU .718

This will be the second time these teams have played this year, with UCLA winning their first matchup. This time though, I predict BYU to win this game and bet a hypothetical $250 on the Cougars.

Bowl Prediction - New Mexico Bowl

New Mexico Bowl

Date: December 22, 2007
Time: 4:30 PM
Location: University Stadium
Albuquerque, New Mexico
TV: ESPN
Payout: $750, 000
Matchup: New Mexico (8-4) vs Nevada (6-6)
Money Lines
New Mexico -135
Nevada +115
Prediction
New Mexico .579
Nevada .560

I predict New Mexico to win this game and bet a hypothetical $135 on the Lobos.

Bowl Prediction - PapaJohns.com Bowl

PapaJohns.com Bowl

Date: December 22, 2007
Time: 1 PM
Location: Legion Field
Birmingham, Alabama
TV: ESPN2
Payout: $300, 000
Matchup: Southern Miss (7-5) vs Cincinnati (9-3)
Money Lines
Southern Miss +375
Cincinnati -475
Prediction
Southern Miss .594
Cincinnati .840

The lines make Cincinnati a heavy favorite, and I will agree. Although betting wih lines like this might not be the smartest thing, the plan is to bet on every game, so I predict Cincinnati to win and bet a hypothetical $475 on the Bearcats.

Bowl Season Predictions Record: 1-1
Bowl Season Net Winnings: $0

Bowl Prediction - New Orleans Bowl

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Date: December 21, 2007
Time: 8 PM
Location: Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: ESPN2
Payout: $325, 000
Matchup: Florida Atlantic (7-5) vs Memphis (7-5)
Money Lines
Florida Atlantic -160
Memphis +140
Prediction
Florida Atlantic .480
Memphis .483

This one was awfully close, but I predict Memphis to win and bet a hypothetical $100 on the Tigers.

Bowl Season Predictions Record: 1-0
Bowl Season Net Winnings: +100

Bowl Prediction - Poinsettia Bowl

I will be predicting each college bowl game using a formula that I have devised. No personal thoughts, biases, or opinions go into these picks, it is simply by the numbers. The picks are not against the point spread, but are rather for the outright winner of the game. Using a similar system last year, I correctly predicted 23 out of the 32 bowl games.

This year, I will also, out of curiosity, compare my pick with the money line and see if I had bet on all the games, if I would end up in the black at the end of the bowl season. If it is a positive line, I will hypothetically put down $100 to win the amount the line shows. If it is a negative line, I will hypothetically bet the amount the line shows to win $100. I will be getting the lines from Sportsbook.com.

Now, onto the first bowl game of the year:

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Date: December 20, 2007
Time: 9 PM
Location: Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, California
TV: ESPN
Payout: $750, 000
Matchup: Utah (8-4) vs Navy (8-4)
Money Lines
Utah -260
Navy +220
Prediction
Utah .694
Navy .581

I predict Utah to win this game and I bet a hypothetical $260 on the Utes to win.

The Week in Boston Sports - 11/28

I've got nothing better to do, so I figured why not revive my blog. Although is it really a revival if I've only made one post before? I guess it's a new start. The last time I wrote the blog, the Celtics had just made the Ray Allen deal and I was angry. Since then, they've added Kevin Garnett and started out 11-2. Oh yeah, the Red Sox won the World Series and the Patriots are 11-0 and favorites to win another Super Bowl. BC football is 10-2 and headed to their first ever ACC Title game, their soccer team is the #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and their basketball team is 4-0. The UMass football team is among the favorites to win the NCAA Championship Subdivision National Title. The Revolution had a good season, winning the US Open Cup and reaching their third straight MLS Cup, before getting their 3rd straight loss in the title game. And even the Bruins have a winning record, which is an improvement over last year. What I guess I'm trying to say is that it seems like a pretty good time to be writing about these teams. So without further adieu, let's look at the Boston sports news this week.

New England Patriots

• The big news coming from the Patriots following their surprisingly close victory over the Eagles on Sunday night is that linebacker Roosevelt Colvin suffered a foot injury during the game, and the team has placed him on injured reserve, ending his season. Incidentally, this is the second time Colvin has been placed on IR during his tenure with the Patriots, as he suffered a hip injury just 2 games after joining the team as its biggest free agent signing to that point in 2003.
• Colvin has been a major contributor on defense this year, and his loss may cause the Patriots to rethink some defensive strategy. Colvin had been playing outside, with Mike Vrabel usually on the other side, and Adalius Thomas and one of Junior Seau or Tedy Bruschi inside in the 3-4 formation. This system has been effective in keeping both Seau and Bruschi at the top of their games, and not tiring them out. They could try to replace Colvin in this system, either plugging Pierre Woods into his OLB spot and leaving everyone else as they were, or possibly play Eric Alexander, who started in the Patriots playoff loss to the Colts last year, at inside linebacker, moving Adalius Thomas to the outside, where he primarily played in Baltimore before this year. Another option is playing the 4-3 more often, with Thomas and Vrabel on the outside and Bruschi or Seau on the inside in the 3 linebacker alignment. This could work because of their defensive line depth, where Jarvis Green, who usually comes off the bench, would move into a starting defensive end spot, which he actually did for the first six weeks of the season while Richard Seymour was out, and Seymour would move inside to play tackle. These are some of the most likely scenarios, but with the way the Patriots do things, you never know what they will go with. I would not be surprised to see each one of these used at various times, with other options thrown in as well. Losing Colvin is a major blow to this defense, but they have enough depth that they should still be favorites to go 19-0 including the playoffs.
• Possibly adding to that depth will be veteran linebacker Chad Brown, who the team signed to replace Colvin on the roster. Brown was with the team in training camp this year but was cut prior to the start of the season. They then re-signed him and he was inactive for three of the four games he was with the team before they cut him again. He was also with the team for the 2005 season. While Brown is a former Pro Bowler, he does not appear to have the speed to play linebacker at a high level anymore, so I would not expect much out of him. It is clear the Patriots like him, perhaps because he is another smart veteran player, but there is a reason that they have already cut him twice this year.
• Also returning to the Patriots is wide receiver Troy Brown, who the team activated from the PUP list. Much like that of Chad Brown, Troy Brown's role on the team is hard to tell, as he probably won't be expected to do much. He may be my favorite player in Patriots history, but right now, he's the seventh receiver on the team, behind Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney, Kelley Washington, and Chad Jackson. While I assume Troy Brown will contribute to the team in some way, it remains to be seen whether it will be on offense, defense, special teams, or just in more of a leadership role. Although with Brown and Moss, the Patriots now have the two best receivers in Marshall history playing together for the first time.
• To make room on the roster for Troy Brown, the team waived rookie defensive lineman Kareem Brown. Kareem Brown had not played in a game this season after being drafted in the fourth round out of the University of Miami. Due to trades, he was actually the second player the Patriots selected in this year's draft. Interestingly enough, with him gone, that means only one of the Patriots' nine draft picks from this year is still with the team - the only one who was drafted before him, first round pick Brandon Meriweather.
• One more bit of Patriots news here, Asante Samuel has been named the AFC Defensive Player of the Week. And the price goes up...

Boston Celtics

• Not a whole lot of Celtics news right now. The biggest story at the moment is that they lost to the Cavs in OT, 109-104, dropping their record to 11-2.
• The only other real news is that the team has recalled rookie point guard Gabe Pruitt from the Utah Flash of the D-League after he spent only two games playing there. With injuries to Tony Allen and Ray Allen, this move was made primarily for practice purposes, so that the team will have enough guards without resorting to playing guys out of position. I'm not a big fan of the D-League system as it stands anyway, mainly due to the fact that there are no teams remotely close to the northeastern US, so having him with the Celtics again does not strike me as a bad move. I can't believe the NBA couldn't put some D-League teams in the New England area so that all the teams in the northeast, which really comes down to all the teams in the Atlantic Division, could use this resource better.

Boston Red Sox

• Jon Lester has won the 2007 Tony Conigliaro Award, which is named after the former Sox player and given to a Major League Baseball player who overcomes adversity. Lester was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in the summer of 2006, but recovered and started and won the deciding game 4 of the World Series. This honor couldn't be more deserved. It is a great honor for Lester and another chapter in the incredible story of his still young career. He is actually now one of two players on the current roster who have won the awards, joining the recently re-signed Mike Lowell, who won the award in 1999 with the Marlins after he overcame cancer.
• The other big story with the Red Sox isn't really a story at all, not yet at least. It is the story that comes around every year at this time, the trade rumors. The big rumors surround Johan Santana, and what the Sox (and the Yankees as well as a few other teams) might be willing to give up to get him from the Twins. I've heard people throw out the names of Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Lester as being headed to Minnesota for Santana. While that is an awful lot of excellent young talent, it might be worth it when you consider that Santana will only be 29 at the start of the 2008 season, meaning he is just entering the stage of his career where most pitchers peak. I guess we'll just have to sit back and see what happens, but if I had to make a guess, I'd say the Sox do not end up with Santana when all is said and done.
• The other trade rumor also involves the Sox and the Twins, as Coco Crisp has be rumored to be headed to Minnesota. This one obviously depends on whether or not the Sox trade Ellsbury, but I doubt very much Ellsbury will get traded, which leaves Coco as the odd man out in the outfield. One possibility is that Crisp replaces Ellsbury in the Santana trade. While Crisp was valuable to the team last year defensively, he has a good contract that other teams look at as much more affordable than some other centerfield options. Once again, since this is just a rumor, we'll have to wait and see on this one, although I hope the Sox get equal value for Coco and don't just trade him because he's getting squeezed out. With the way injuries go, there's a chance they'll trade him away and then wish two months later that they hadn't.

Boston College Football

• One more newsbit here and then I'm done. Quarterback Matt Ryan has been named the ACC Player of the Year. The award does not come as a surprise, as he had been named the preseason Player of the Year, but he backed up that prediction and lived up to expectations. He also won the ACC Offensive Player of the Year and has been named a finalist for the national Walter Camp Player of the Year award. With his awards, Ryan was also named to the All-ACC first team along with teammates tight end Ryan Purvis and safety Jamie Silva. Running back Andre Callender, offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus, linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar, and cornerback DeJuan Tribble were named to the second team while wide receiver Brandon Robinson, defensive tackle Ron Brace, and defensive end Alex Albright were named honorable mentions. The many honors bestowed upon these players shows the type of season this team has had this year, as the have the chance to win the ACC Title on Saturday.

Well, that's all I feel like writing about now. Feel free to leave comments since I'm not sure if anyone even reads this anyway. Let me know what you think of the news, of my writing, or anything.

MLB All Star teams and some thoughts on the state of the Celtics

For my first blog entry, I was planning on writing about the Celtics’ first pick in the draft this past Thursday night, but with Danny Ainge running things, and changing him mind about what type of team he wants every few months, I don’t feel like writing too much about that.

My few comments: I like Ray Allen, and think he’s a good player and a class act. Unfortunately, he’s almost 32 and has two bad ankles. That’s two big question marks for him. At first, I thought I might have been too biased, and just hated this trade because of my man-crush on Delonte West. And I’m not the only one; he may have been the most popular player on the team (much like Allen was in Seattle). Delonte is a hard nosed player who isn’t afraid to back down and plays hard all the time. Is he a superstar? Far from it. But he’s the type of player that can be a big time contributor on a good team. Seattle fans (or Oklahoma City or Vegas fans perhaps) are going to love this guy. As it turns out, many experts who did not have my affection for Delonte agreed with my assessment of the deal, basically that Danny Ainge has no clue what he’s doing. My brother has already declared the Celtics dead to him, and for now, I’m not ready to go that far. However, if Al Jefferson gets traded at all, it’ll be pretty simple. As far as I’ll be concerned, the Celtics will be dead.

Now for the other reason for today’s blog, the MLB All Star teams as I see them. The rosters for the 2007 All Star teams will be announced tomorrow, so I will give the rosters if it was up to me to choose them. This is not a prediction of who will make it, but rather, who I think should make it. I will keep with the fan voting for the starters, using the results from June 26. If those results change, my rosters would probably change slightly too, depending upon the who and the how of the changes. Also keep in mind that all Major League teams must have a representative on an All Star team. So without further adieu, I give you my 2007 MLB All Star teams:

American League

Starters

C	Rodriguez	DET
1B	Ortiz	BOS
2B	Polanco	DET
3B	Rodriguez	NYY
SS	Jeter	NYY
OF	Guerrero	LAA
OF	Ordoñez	DET
OF	Suzuki	SEA

Reserves

C	Posada	NYY
C	Martinez	CLE
1B	Peña	TB
1B	Morneau	MIN
2B	Roberts	BAL
3B	Lowell	BOS
SS	Guillen	DET
SS	Young	TEX
OF	Hunter	MIN
OF	Granderson	DET
OF	Rios	TOR
OF	Teahen	KC

Pitchers

SP	Haren	OAK
SP	Guthrie	BAL
SP	Santana	MIN
SP	Lackey	LAA
SP	Beckett	BOS
SP	Verlander	DET
SP	Sabathia	CLE
SP	Blanton	OAK
RP	Rodriguez	LAA
RP	Putz	SEA
RP	Papelbon	BOS
RP	Jenks	CHW

National League

Starters

C	Martin	LAD
1B	Fielder	MIL
2B	Utley	PHI
3B	Wright	NYM
SS	Reyes	NYM
OF	Beltran	NYM
OF	Griffey	CIN
OF	Soriano	CHC

Reserves

C	Molina	SF
1B	Pujols	STL
1B	Lee	CHC
1B	Young	WAS
2B	Hudson	ARI
3B	Cabrera	FLA
SS	Ramirez	FLA
SS	Hardy	MIL
OF	Bonds	SF
OF	Holliday	COL
OF	Byrnes	ARI
OF	Lee	HOU

Pitchers

SP	Penny	LAD
SP	Young	SD
SP	Peavy	SD
SP	Snell	PIT
SP	Smoltz	ATL
SP	Lowe	LAD
SP	Sheets	MIL
SP	Maine	NYM
RP	Cordero	MIL
RP	Saito	LAD
RP	Hoffman	SD
RP	Wagner	NYM

So there you have it, my picks for the All Star teams and some other possibilities. I know there are many other deserving players, but I feel confident with my actual 32 man rosters. On Sunday we’ll see if the MLB people agree with me.